PARLIN Institutionalization of political parties in the parliaments of Central Europe – data mining of parliamentary debates

About PARLIN

How do new topics become a source of political conflict? How has the understanding of democracy changed over time? Can you predict which parties will fall quickly and which will become important political actors? The project, led by Dr Agnieszka Kwiatkowska, aims to analyse the process of institutionalization of political parties in parliaments of five Central European countries (Poland, the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Slovakia and Hungary), by using quantitative methods of analysing textual data (parliamentary debates) and numerical data (roll-call votes) on an innovative database that will be created in the project.

Project Description

The institutionalization of political parties is a process of continuous, dynamic adaptation and stabilization resulting in a shift from loose, spontaneous initiatives to more organized modes of collective action. In the project, we plan to analyse how internal institutionalization (consistency in parliamentary speeches, personal stability, internal divisions) and external one (influence on other parties in the parliament) affect the party's durability and its ability to survive. By researching parliamentary debates in five countries, we want to find out what factors determine a survival of a new party or its collapse or a takeover by another party. We will learn how the party's cohesion and identity are expressed in parliamentary statements, as well as what characterizes the process of institutionalization of party systems in Central and Eastern Europe.

Project Methodology

The methodological objective of the project is to evaluate the existing methods of determining the ideological positions of parliamentarians and parliamentary clubs and to create new methods for the simultaneous analysis of parliamentary debates and roll-call votes, taking into account the micro level variables (metadata on parliamentarians and debates) and the macro level (concerning the party system). The use of a variety of statistical techniques and machine learning methods to classify, analyse relationships, and reduce the dimensionality of data will increase the accuracy of analysis and prediction of parliamentary behaviour and the activities of parliamentary clubs.

Funding

Team

Agnieszka Kwiatkowska

Prinicpal Investigator

Sociologist, political scientist, interested in the impact of political actors on public discourse.

Viktoriia Muliavka

Researcher

Sociologist, researches political protests and specializes in comparative multilevel analysis.

Hubert Plisiecki

Researcher

Psychologist, interested in NLP, identifying QRP, and quantitative research.

Tomasz Rawski

Researcher

Political scientist, researching the application of rhetorical techniques in politics.

Publications

• Rawski, T., Kwiatkowska, A., & Plisiecki, H. (2024). Retoryka wykluczenia a retoryka uwiarygodnienia: „prawdziwi Polacy” w dyskursie parlamentarnym. Res Rhetorica, 11(1), 28-51. https://doi.org/10.29107/rr2024.1.2 Abstract
  Rozróżnienie na „swoich” i „obcych” jest dla władzy narzędziem kształtowania tożsamości narodowej poprzez określenie granic przynależności i wykluczenia. Celem badania była analiza definiowania wyrażenia prawdziwi Polacy w przemówieniach w Sejmie. Analiza została przeprowadzona na stworzonym korpusie przemówień sejmowych z lat 1989-2023, składającym się z ponad 291 tys. wystąpień z obrad plenarnych. Badanie kontekstu przywołania wyrażenia prawdziwi Polacy, towarzyszących mu emocji, typu bu-dowania opozycji między „prawdziwymi Polakami” a resztą narodu, w połączeniu z analizą zastosowanych toposów (loci), pozwoliło na wysunięcie wniosków dotyczących politycznych intencji posługiwania się tym wyrażeniem, które interpretujemy w kategoriach „retoryki wykluczenia” i „retoryki uwiarygodnienia”. Poprzez zastosowanie tej perspektywy, wyniki badania rzucają nowe światło na uniwersalne mechanizmy konstruowania tożsamości narodowej w dyskursie publicznym, ukazując, jak klasyczne schematy argumen-tacyjne adaptowane są do współczesnych debat politycznych.
• Kwiatkowska, A., Pustułka, P., & Buler, M. (2024). Persistence of Abortion Stigma Inscribed in the Legal Framework: The Case of Abortion Attitudes in Poland. Social Politics. https://doi.org/10.1093/sp/jxad035 Abstract
  This article offers novel insights into the mechanism of abortion stigma and its pervasive impact on attitudes toward abortion. Specifically, it tracks the impact of the restrictive Polish 1993 law, known as the “abortion compromise,” on attitudes toward pregnancy terminations over three decades, exploring the role of abortion stigma in the observed shifts. Employing data from representative surveys and in-depth interviews with young women, this study demonstrates how gendered sexuality norms inscribed in the law are responsible for locating abortion in the realm of morality, thus intensifying its stigma. Remarkably, we uncover a unique convergence of “pro-choice” and “pro-life” perspectives in Poland. The growing unanimity of attitudes is attributed to the stigmatization of abortion that surpasses the medical or legal justifications of the 1993 law. Thus, the results crucially inform the strategies needed for the women’s rights movement aiming to liberalize the restrictive legislation.
• Kwiatkowska, A., Muliavka, V., & Plisiecki, H. (2023). Hollowed or redefined? Changing visions of democracy in the political discourse of Law and Justice. Democratization, 30(3), 458-478. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2022.2152439 Abstract
  Since 2015, the governing party, Law and Justice (PiS), has gradually eroded democratic institutions in Poland. To find out whether this process has been reflected in the political discourse solely as a collapse of liberal democracy or whether we are observing a narrative redefinition of the meaning of democracy, we conducted a systematic qualitative study of the framing of democracy in PiS parliamentary speeches (2001–2020), set against the comparative background of major Polish political parties. Having adapted the Varieties of Democracy’s classification of dimensions of democracy to discourse analysis, we show that while the liberal model of democracy has dominated Polish political discourse, it has been used by PiS less frequently than by other parties and in an increasingly critical way. Furthermore, electoral and majoritarian democracy has been growing in importance and the will of the electoral majority has been used to legitimize breaking democratic procedures. However, the government’s broad redistributive policies have not been accompanied by a more egalitarian vision of democracy. We argue that the unwillingness to incorporate an egalitarian dimension into narratives on democracy demonstrates that the ruling party frames redistribution as their conditional charity towards selected social and occupational groups and not as a corrective towards economically inclusive democracy.
• Lazorenko, O., & Kwiatkowska, A. (2023). Democracy and Civic Space: Normative Models and Ukrainian Discourse. Filosofska Dumka, 4, 71-102. https://doi.org/10.15407/fd2023.04 Abstract
  The article, authored by Ukrainian and Polish social researchers, analyses normative approaches towards understanding models of democracy and their relation to civic space. Despite the existence of multiple models of democracy, they can largely be reduced to two main forms: direct and representative democracy. Deliberative democracy is posited as a third form, which, according to some scientists, combines elements of representative, direct, and participatory democracy. The analysis is based on the assessment of democracy and civic space in Ukraine, utilising data from six applied international social studies, as well as the evaluation of the modern characteristics of some components of Ukrainian civic space. According to the rating of CIVICUS Monitor, Ukraine has been classified in the category of countries where the civic space is «obstructed» from 2019 to the present time (Autumn 2023). Currently, the advancement of civic space in Ukraine towards more favourable forms of freedom of association, peaceful assembly, and expression of opinion in the country are threatened by several factors simultaneously, with the dominant role has Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine. The article also uses the results of the authors’ previous and current academic research, as well as the results of twenty years of advocacy and analytical work as public experts in Ukraine and Europe.
• Kwiatkowska, A., Chwedczuk-Szulc, K. & Bolechów, B. (2022). Disentangling the Moral Rightness of Securitization: Data Mining of the Process of Framing and Shaping of Poland-United States Relations. Polish Political Science Review 9(1), 35-59. https://doi.org/10.2478/ppsr-2022-0003 Abstract
  Since the democratic transition, Poland-United States relations have been framed by the Polish authorities as a strategic threat-management tool in the securitization process of Poland’s geopolitical position, particularly concerning the Russian Federation. We analyse the process of securitization regarding Poland-US relations through latent topic modelling of Polish parliamentary speeches in the years 1991-2017. We demonstrate that the discourse on Polish-US relations is heavily dominated by security topics, narrowly understood as military security. Furthermore, even when economic issues are discussed, they are frequently linked to military operations. Based on Floyd’s (2011, 2019) model of the moral rightness of securitization, we argue that the close relationship between securitizing moves (debates on Poland-US relations) and security practices (security events) suggests the basic sincerity of the securitizing actor, while the historical context reflected in the Polish collective memory strongly influences the audience’s frame of reference and strengthens the power of the securitizing actor. However, although the case fulfils Floyd’s (2019) criteria of morally right securitization, we have shown a historical disparity between the scope of securitizing moves with security practices and the existing level of threat. This demonstrates that the securitizing agent has been exceeding the ‘least harmful option’, particularly due to the large asymmetry of power of the participants in the relationship, the securitization process stretched over a long period and the threat severity varying over time.
• Kwiatkowska, A. (2021). Contested Democracy and the Rise of Archaic Derogatory Language in the Polish Parliament. In: Walter, A. S. (ed.) Political Incivility in the Parliamentary, Electoral and Media Arena: Crossing Boundaries, London: Routledge. Abstract
  Over the past quarter of a century, we have observed a clear increase in the use of archaic derogatory rhetoric in parliamentary debate in Poland, stylized on the speech of the former Polish gentry. The aim of this pompous and disrespectful variety of language, delivering absolute moral judgement, has been to label political opponents as morally unable to hold a political position and thereby exclude them from the decision-making process. In this article, using transcripts of parliamentary speeches from the lower chamber of the Polish parliament from 1991 to 2019, I analyze changes in political discourse relating to the idea of ​​shame, betrayal and disgrace. The results show that the use of archaic derogatory language has been increasing over time and has been used primarily by opposition parties. While, initially, speeches casting accusations of treason or disgrace were authored primarily by radical right-wing parties, since 2015 the usage of archaic, derogative vocabulary by MPs from centrist parties has increased greatly. Besides political affiliation, this is moderated by other political variables: electoral support and parliamentary experience of MPs.

Conferences

• A. Kwiatkowska. In defence of democracy: parliamentary opposition and democratic resilience in Poland. SISP 36th Annual Conference, 14-14.09.2023 Genoa.
• A. Kwiatkowska, co-authors: V. Muliavka, H. Plisiecki. Hollowed or redefined? Changing visions of democracy in the political discourse of Law and Justice. ECPR General Conference, Charles University, 4-8.09.2023 Praha.
• H. Plisiecki, co-authors: T. Rawski, A. Kwiatkowska. Belonging through exclusion. The rhetoric of 'true Poles' in Polish parliamentary speeches. ECPR General Conference, Charles University, 4-8.09.2023 Praha.
• A. Kwiatkowska. Predicting MPs' Ideological Positions: Linking Multilingual Parliamentary Speeches with Roll-Call Voting and Socio-Demographic Data. COMPTEXT. International and Interdisciplinary Conference on the Quantitative and Computational Analysis of Textual Data, University of Strathclyde, 12-13.05.2023 Glasgow.
• H. Plisiecki, co-authors: A. Kwiatkowska, V. Muliavka. Party cohesion and survival in Central and Eastern Europe. COMPTEXT. International and Interdisciplinary Conference on the Quantitative and Computational Analysis of Textual Data, University of Strathclyde, 12-13.05.2023 Glasgow.
• A. Kwiatkowska. Voting Unity In Central European Parliaments 1993-2021: The Impact of Party Status and Size. Midwest Political Science Association Conference, 13-16.04.2023 Chicago.
• A. Kwiatkowska, co-authors: V. Muliavka, H. Plisiecki, Hollowed or redefined? Framing the democratic backsliding in the political discourse of Law and Justice. Midwest Political Science Association Conference, 13-16.04.2023 Chicago.
• A. Kwiatkowska. Kryzys demokracji i polaryzacja społeczna. Konferencja Kryzys państwa? Państwo wobec kryzysów, Instytut Socjologii Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego, 9-10.03.2023 Warszawa.
• A. Kwiatkowska, co-author: H. Plisiecki Finding Democracy in Big Data: Word-Embedding-Based Sample Selection for Qualitative and Mixed-Methods Research. I Warsztat Ilościowych Badań Politycznych, 9.02.2023 Warszawa.
• A. Kwiatkowska, co-authors: A. Dziubińska, V. Muliavka, H. Plisiecki. Autorytaryzacja w służbie suwerena, Ogólnopolski Zjazd Socjologiczny, Polskie Towarzystwo Socjologiczne, 14-17.09.2022 Warszawa.
• H. Plisiecki, co-authors: A. Kwiatkowska, V. Muliavka. Party cohesion and survival in Central and Eastern Europe. Ogólnopolski Zjazd Socjologiczny, Polskie Towarzystwo Socjologiczne, 14-17.09.2022 Warszawa.
• H. Plisiecki, as a co-author: A. Kwiatkowska. Automatyczne wyszukiwanie dokumentów w dużych korpusach tekstowych. Ogólnopolski Zjazd Socjologiczny, Polskie Towarzystwo Socjologiczne, 14-17.09.2022 Warszawa.
• A. Kwiatkowska, co-authors: V. Muliavka, H. Plisiecki. Hollowed-out or Redefined? Changing Visions of Democracy in Poland. The End of “Freedom” in Central and Eastern Europe? Addressing the Challenges of an Illiberal Turn, Andrássy University, 9-11.06.2022 Budapest.
• A. Kwiatkowska, co-author: K. Grzybowska-Walecka. Youth Tells a Different Story: Mobilizing for or against Democracy?. The End of “Freedom” in Central and Eastern Europe? Addressing the Challenges of an Illiberal Turn, Andrássy University, 9-11.06.2022 Budapest.
• H. Plisiecki, co-authors: A. Kwiatkowska, V. Muliavka. Extracting general topics from large text corpora with word-embedding based saturation methods. COMPTEXT. International and Interdisciplinary Conference on the Quantitative and Computational Analysis of Textual Data, University College Dublin, 6-7.05.2022 Dublin.
• V. Muliavka, co-authors: A. Kwiatkowska, H. Plisiecki. Opposition Parties in Defence of Democracy: Changing discourse of Civic Platform in Poland in 2001-2020. ECPR Joint Sessions 2022, University of Edinburgh, 19-22.04.2022 Edinburgh.
• A. Kwiatkowska. Strategic repositioning in the party system: The electoral success of the Polish Green Party. UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES), 10.03.2022 London.
• H. Plisiecki, co-authors: A. Kwiatkowska, V. Muliavka. Automatyczne wyszukiwanie dokumentów w dużych korpusach tekstowych. III Studencko-Doktorancka Konferencja Naukowa KONFA. Archeologia i filologia klasyczna. Współpraca i wspólne wyzwania w XXI w., Uniwersytet Warsawski, 25.02.2022 Virtual Event.
• A. Kwiatkowska, co-authors: A. Dziubińska, V. Muliavka, H. Plisiecki. Changing visions of democracy. 6th Conference of the ECPR Standing Group on Parliaments, 1-2.07.2021 Virtual Event.